India–Australia Rare Earths Gambit: Breaking China’s Grip on Critical Minerals

Introduction

Rare earth elements (REEs) are the basis of the modern military-technology complex and the broader energy transition.
A set of 17 elements – plus associated important minerals such as gallium, germanium, graphite and antimony – feed permanent-magnet motors,
precision-guided munitions, AESA radars, electro-optical/infrared (EO/IR) systems, directed-energy platforms and electric propulsion systems in naval and land vehicles.

For more than a decade, China has maintained overwhelming advantages in mining, separation, metallurgy, alloying and magnet production.

That concentration of know-how and capability has translated into sustainable market advantages, policy instruments and – sometimes – explicit export controls that resonate through Western defence supply chains.^[1–4]

India and Australia have responded by weaving together complementary assets: Australia, with world-class deposits, project development experience and early-mover refining; India, with scale markets, emerging magnet ambitions and a push to secure state-led feedstock and mid-stream processing. This analysis examines the combined pressures: How each country is expanding mining; What concrete steps they are taking to add refining capacity; Who are the customers in the near future; Which specific minerals are most important for defence;

What a shortage would mean for Western forces; The global outlook for supply; and Which other countries are now moving in the same direction.

99.999% gallium crystals — Gallium, commonly used in compound forms such as gallium arsenide (GaAs) and gallium nitride (GaN), is a key component of modern military Electronics are a critical enabler. These compounds support high-performance semiconductor devices that power advanced radar systems, including the US Navy’s AN/SPY-6; electronic warfare suites for jamming, deception, and secure communications; missile guidance units for precision targeting; and satellite RF amplifiers. Ensure resilient space-based communications. Their combination of high-frequency operation, high-power handling, and exceptional thermal stability make them indispensable in active electronically scanned array (AESA) radars, electronic attack pods, and other mission-critical defense platforms.

1) China’s position – and why it matters to defense

Multiple authoritative sources converge on three facts: (i) China is a dominant refiner of most important minerals;
(ii) it produces a large proportion of rare-earth permanent magnets; and (iii) it exports when geopolitics demands it. It has not hesitated to tighten controls.^[1–5]
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that China is the leading refiner for 19 of the 20 minerals it tracks, with an average refining market share of about 70 percent.^[1]
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) continues to document U.S. reliance on imported rare earth compounds and metals despite a comeback at Mountain Pass.^[2,6]
A Reuters analysis puts China’s share of rare-earth magnet production at about 90 percent, a sharp single-point-of-failure because the magnets are a finished intermediate used in everything from EVs to F-35 actuators.^[3]

Defense relevance

Permanent magnets (NdFeB and SmCo), heavy REE dopants (Dy, Tb), and yttrium and gadolinium for lasers and EO/IR dominate defense use cases.

Production delays for combat, missiles, sonar, and space payloads are the bottlenecks here. History is not fiction:

China halted rare earth exports to Japan in 2010, and has imposed successive restrictions on gallium, germanium, graphite, and selected rare earth products since 2023,
clearly citing national security.^[4,5]

2) India’s strategy: From geological mapping to magnets

India’s rare-earth strategy for 2024-2025 has sharpened around a state-led architecture that includes exploration, foreign acquisition, domestic isolation, and magnets.

Policy and institutions. New Delhi launched the National Critical Minerals Mission (NCMM)** in 2025 has launched, which has assigned nearly 1,200 exploration projects to the Geological Survey of India till FY2030-31
and provided financing and coordination support for public sector undertakings and private partners.^[7–9,15]
The Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Amendment Act, 2023 removed six “nuclear” minerals – including lithium and niobium – from state-specific lists,
opened up exploration and mining to private players and enabled central auctions for deep-seated critical minerals.^[10,16]
A progressive supplementary legal push in 2025 will allow state funds to acquire overseas critical-mineral assets, formalising the long-suggested outbound strategy.^[13]

Read More: EUROATLAS and Rheinmetall to Integrate GREYSHARK AUVs into Coastal Defence; Joint Development of Future Variants

FAQs