Examining the Realities of a Taiwan Invasion
Introduction
US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s interim National Defense Strategic Guidance1 instructed the armed forces to keep Taiwan at the forefront, indicating that the Trump administration intends to shape defense planning around the threat posed by the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
Upon closer inspection, the first three considerations alone make a PRC invasion of Taiwan highly unlikely. The military factor remains the weakest of the four because most battlefield obstacles can ultimately be controlled if leaders accept the human and material costs. China’s military strategy and long-standing policies demonstrate its clear preference for applying pressure through non-confrontational means, reserving the use of military force only if “all opportunities for peaceful reunification have been completely exhausted.”3
The “Taiwan scenario” deserves deeper assessment, as senior voices in the national security community continue to present Taiwan as the main justification for numerous defense decisions, from budgets to arms purchases.
Economic sanctions over aggression
A military campaign would force the party to divert attention and resources from its current economic woes. Such a shift could generate public discontent, which would directly challenge the party’s authority. 6 Leaders would need considerable political justification to shift their focus from economic development to costly and high-risk military action.
Public opinion is already signaling resistance to war-driven disruption. A 2020-2021 study by the University of California, San Diego found that “concern about economic costs was associated with more pacifist views, while concern about reputational costs reduced respondents’ willingness to support aggression.”
Taiwan’s Terrain
Despite Taiwan’s frequent presence in security discussions, analysis of the island’s geography is scant. Media coverage often highlights maps showing Taiwan’s proximity to mainland China, suggesting that crossing the Taiwan Strait is a major challenge. From an American perspective, where any military response would likely focus primarily on air and naval operations, political boundaries alone may provide an incomplete picture of the true difficulty.
s a Chinese invasion of Taiwan imminent?
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that a Chinese attempt to forcibly seize Taiwan “could be imminent,”
Donald Trump’s decision to suspend hundreds of millions of dollars in military aid to Taiwan has raised concerns that he may be using the island to forge stronger trade deals with Beijing.
How real is an invasion?
In May, Hegseth warned that a Chinese attempt to seize Taiwan “could be imminent.” However, the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) noted that analysts are divided on both the likelihood and the timeline of an attack.
Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of US Indo-Pacific Command, told Congress in April that Beijing was continuing “unprecedented aggression and rapid military modernization.” Stressing the danger of these actions, he explained that China’s exercises near Taiwan “are not just training — they are rehearsals.”
When could an invasion take place?
Paparo informed lawmakers that the PLA is working to achieve President Xi Jinping’s goal of occupying Taiwan by force by 2027. Robert Fox wrote in The Standard that the date is considered symbolic because it marks the 100th anniversary of the founding of the force that evolved into today’s PLA.
What could provoke a conflict?
Joel Wuthnow outlined three possible paths in Foreign Affairs. First, a “war of choice,” in which China would deliberately seek to conquer Taiwan after weighing the military, economic, and political costs. Second, a “war of necessity,” if Beijing believes Taiwan has crossed a red line that permanently undermines its claim, such as a declaration of independence. Third, and perhaps the most overlooked yet plausible, scenario is a war started by accident or miscalculation that escalates into a wider conflict.
Understanding Naval Blockades Under International Law
Under customary international law, a naval blockade is considered a legitimate right during armed conflict. A blockade is not illegal in itself, but it complies with the established rules of war. The subject is complex and often controversial.
For a blockade to be valid, it must first be effective, meaning that the blockading force must physically prevent access to the enemy’s coastline. In addition, the initiating state must notify other nations of the initiation of the blockade and define the specific area it covers.
The blockade must be applied fairly to all ships, except neutral ships in distress. Any ship attempting to breach the blockade can be intercepted, seized, or if necessary fired upon.
Types of Blockade Strategies
China has several possible approaches to imposing a blockade on Taiwan. Unlike a full-scale invasion, a blockade allows for flexibility—it can be intensified, relaxed, or even lifted depending on how events unfold.
In one scenario, China could attack merchant ships trying to deliver essential supplies to Taiwan’s waters, which would force Taiwan to surrender. This would represent a dynamic blockade.
Alternatively, China could choose its preferred approach of “winning without fighting.” Using its vast navy, coast guard, and marines, it could surround Taiwan and close off access to its ports. This method could isolate Taiwan from international trade so that it could be forced to surrender or weakened enough for an invasion—all without open warfare. This would be a non-dynamic blockade.
These methods are reinforced by China’s domestic law, which outlines the legal boundaries around its claimed waters. For example, China is required to notify foreign ships when they enter areas under its jurisdiction and gives its ships the right to stop or redirect maritime traffic for security purposes.
However, these powers conflict with international law. China claims the Taiwan Strait as part of its territory, but under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, it remains international waters, which guarantees freedom of navigation for all nations.
Responding to a Blockade
It remains uncertain how other nations might respond to a Chinese blockade or aggression. In recent years, China has worked to increase its naval dominance by creating exclusion zones, particularly by militarizing the South China Sea.
One possible response would be a counter-blockade. This strategy would involve allied navies, led by the United States, closing strategic choke points such as the Strait of Malacca, a vital route for China’s maritime trade with the global economy.
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