“In preparation for the NATO summit in The Hague on June 24-25, 2025, several member states have pledged to dramatically increase their defense spending – far exceeding the long-standing 2% target. The bold move reflects growing concerns about Russian aggression and US pressure to shoulder more of the alliance’s burden on Europe.
New 5% commitments and leadership
- 🇸🇪 Sweden: Prime Minister Ulf Kristersen has confirmed that Sweden will allocate 3.5% of GDP to core military spending, plus a further 1.5% to infrastructure and civil protection, bringing total spending to 5%.
- 🇳🇱 Netherlands: The Dutch caretaker government pledged 3.5% for active defense and 1.5% for security infrastructure and preparedness, in line with the 5% target.
- 🇵🇱 Poland: Already at just 4.7%, Poland has confirmed its intention to meet the 5% target. Summit.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte urged allies to make a “”quantum leap”” in investment within five years, warning of a potential Russian threat.
NATO Member Spending: Current & Projected (% GDP)
| Country | 2024 Actual | Projected / Pledged | Commitment Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 United States | 3.2% | ~3.5% | — |
| 🇵🇱 Poland | 4.7% | ≥5% | Committed to 5% |
| 🇸🇪 Sweden | 2.4% | 5% | Committed to 5% |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands | ~2.0% | 5% | Committed to 5% |
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | ~2.3% | 2.5% by 2027 | — |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | 2.12% | Phased increase | — |
| 🇫🇷 France | ~2.1% | 2.5–3% by late 2020s | — |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | ~2% | 5% proposed in 10 yrs | — |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | ~1.5% | <2.5% | — |
| 🇧🇪 Belgium | ~1.3% | <2.5% | — |
| 🇪🇸 Spain | ~1.28% | 2% by 2029 | — |
| Others (NATO data) | 0.9–1.5% | Varied | — |
- Currently, 22 allies meet the 2% guideline.
- Sweden, Netherlands, and Poland are the only 5% pledges confirmed so far.
U.S. cooperation and concerns from allies
In May, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said:
“Almost every NATO member… has agreed to the goal of reaching 5% in the next decade”.
But there is a hitch: German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned that the 5% target was “unrealistic” and advocated a slower increase.
Economic and strategic Considerations
- Market Response: European defense stocks are rising—annual returns up 40%—cycle driven by expectations of major defense reforms.
- Financial Risk: S&P Global warned that reaching 5% could jeopardize credit ratings and require cuts to social services.
- Capability Readiness: NATO Supreme Joint Commander Admiral Pierre Vandeer stressed that without a workforce and industrial ramp-up, the additional funds will not be used for military capabilities.
Summit Stakes
With the Netherlands hosting, NATO hopes that the Hague summit will:
- Finalize a credible roadmap for 5% of GDP defense spending.
- Clarify what spending counts toward total spending (defense versus infrastructure/security).
- Establish a timeline that accommodates both economic realities and strategic urgency Do.
Mark Rutte reflected this urgency:
“Europe needs a wartime mentality and must turbo-charge defense production and spending”.
This summit could mark a historic shift – from ambitious pledges to full-scale rearmament.
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